12 noon – 1:30 pm
Ahmadieh Family Conference Room,
KIE 101 West Duke Building (East Campus)
Lunch served; please RSVP to Hayden Hashimoto by 1:00 pm on Tuesday, March 27.
How should policymakers account for the possibility of extreme-upside events, such as might result from successfully colonizing other planets, ending malnutrition, eradicating malaria, developing autonomous vehicles, or implementing other transformational new technologies? Although there is an increasingly robust literature on catastrophic risk, which is designed to help policymakers in managing extreme-downside risks, there is no corollary literature examining the appropriate management of transformatively-good events. This talk will consider possible explanations for the general neglect of extreme-upside scenarios in policy analysis, consider the extent that existing research on extreme-downside events might be transferred to extreme-upside events, and flag reasons that “best-case scenarios” might sometimes justify distinctive policy treatment.
Arden Rowell is a Professor of Law at the University of Illinois College of Law and Visiting Professor of Law at Duke Law. Before joining the Illinois faculty in 2010, Professor Rowell was a Bigelow Fellow and Lecturer in Law at the University of Chicago Law School, from which she also received her J.D.